In 1992, almost every fourth country was involved in an armed conflict. In 2009, that proportion had fallen to every sixth country. In 2050, only every twelfth country will be involved in a conflict. In other words, half as many again. The number of conflicts is falling. We expect this fall to continue. We predict a steady fall in the number of conflicts in the next 40 years. Conflicts that involve a high degree of violence, such as Syria, are becoming increasingly rare.